Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
